Ukraine, March 23rd 2022

Putin’s war of choice on Ukraine is proving to be a massive shift in the mindset of the globe.

The final endgame of the rhetoric of an authoritarian is war and/or genocide. This is a defining point when an authoritarian unambiguously becomes a fascist.

Part of the problem stems from the fact that calling someone a fascist immediately ends conversation. This is is why even in A More Perfect Union I generally used the term authoritarian, not fascist.

The horror comes from realizing that the time for conversation is over. It’s just fascism.

For much of the West, Putin has been treated as a potentially redeemable annoyance. Political structures failed to effectively respond to the insidious interference in elections and political systems due to the difficult problem reconciling free speech with foreign interference.

With the invasion of Ukraine, everything changes. Everyone knows that fascism is on the march, and that we are seeing the cost of inaction play out every day in the civilian deaths in Ukraine.

Ukraine must win. If not, Moldova will be next. Then the Baltic states. Then Poland.

I highly recommend checking out this video from the current military advisor to the president of Ukraine.

This is the most lucid and detailed analysis of the situation I’ve seen… and it came out in 2019. The Ukrainians knew, and they know.

The problem that faces the United States is the growing infatuation with many on the right for Putin. Figures such as Tucker Carlson are pretty open in their support for Putin. I don’t know what happens as the economic sanctions continue to bite the Russian propaganda machine. How much longer can the Republican party sustain itself in the face of the ongoing war in Ukraine?

Talk of a second civil war continues to grow in the United States among Republicans, even after the invasion started. I don’t think the rally-around-the-flag effect will last more than a few months, unless the United States becomes directly involved in the war. I suspect that the EU and the United States will eventually get more involved, especially as Putin runs out of options.

I’ve tried to wrap my mind around how the invasion of Ukraine would have played out with Trump as president, and I’ll confess that the thought is just too exhausting to contemplate. No sanctions. EU and NATO in disarray. No military and economic aid from the US for Ukraine. Trump openly calling for Ukraine to submit.

I don’t know if the countless swirling effects and side-effects of the changes in Russia, Ukraine, and all the rest actually make things more or less likely to go sideways in the United States. I keep thinking about the concept of catharsis in Generations - the idea that the tensions will get worse and worse until there is a breaking point. I just don’t know that the Russian invasion of Ukraine will provide the cathartic resolution - but unfortunately, all signs are pointing to a doubling down of support for Russia by large numbers of the Republican party.

We live in interesting times, alas.