MTG's "National Divorce"

The last few weeks I've had several people email me about Marjorie Taylor Greene (GA-R) calling for a "national divorce." From what I can tell, it looks like what she's really proposing is a massively reduced federal government, not completely dissolving the union. Tellingly, she hasn't introduced any proposed legislation, much less a Constitutional amendment.

All in all this reads to me as a pretty bog standard bit of conservative grandstanding. If she was actually serious about any of this, the first step as a member of Congress would be to introduce a bill of some kind. Without any proposed text, it’s essentially just a way to grab media attention. At most, it’s a trial ballon, or perhaps a way to expand the Overton window.

For comparison, consider the bill introduced a few days ago by Texas State Rep. Bryan Slaton calling for a referendum on Texas' secession from the United States to be placed on the November 2024 ballot. As noted earlier, this referendum is part of the Texas GOP party platform posted July 2022 (direct PDF download).

If there is no further action on Rep. Slaton’s bill than this filing, it's safe to interpret this as a publicity stunt. Given that this referendum is part of the GOP party platform, superficially there is no reason for it not to pass given Republican control of the Texas state government. I’ve read rumors that this is an issue that’s splitting the state GOP behind the scenes, but so far that appears to be more or less an internal GOP issue.

This bill is one of several issues that could potentially split the Republican party in ruby red primaries. It brings to mind a similar split in conservative UK politics that led to Brexit. Initially the call for Brexit was dominated by the culture-focused right-wing of the conservative party. The more centrist, market-oriented conservatives were not as interested, as the business constituency was (and remains) concerned with losing access to the EU market. The Brexit referendum was allowed by centrist leadership under the assumption that it would fail and the issue could be put to rest. As we know, the Brexit referendum wound up barely passing… and then it was interpreted as a mandate. It's pretty easy to see how the pressure to "just allow a vote" for Texit could similarly build in a heated primary as a way to distinguish candidates in ruby red districts. “Only a RINO would oppose a vote” could prove to be a powerful slogan in many districts.

I set up an alert for HB 3596. If I see any movement, I'll send out an update. The November 2024 election is already set up to be pretty intense. A Texas referendum on secession would certainly make it wilder.

All the best, and stay safe out there.

P.S. If you enjoyed reading A More Perfect Union, please leave a positive review on Amazon - even a quick star rating is a big help!